Aaron Fitt of Baseball America has completed the organizational rankings for the Washington Nationals for the last four seasons (2005-2006-2007-2008). Over that time he has seen the Nationals grow from shoestring to among the tops in the major leagues (#9 overall in 2008). Aaron was kind enough to take the time to answer a few questions for me about where the Nationals have come from and where he sees them going.
Nationals Farm Authority (NFA): Baseball America moved the Nationals from the 30th best system in 2007 to the 9th best in 2008. In your opinion, what was the primary reason driving this rapid ascension? How much fluidity is there to this ranking (i.e. do you see stability to the ranking or will it be more mercurial)?
Aaron Fitt (AF): Simply put, the Washington’s system has gotten a major infusion of talent over the last year. Much of that is because of the 2007 draft, which we rated as the best in baseball. The Nationals had five picks in the first two rounds and made the most of them, grabbing players with upside but who could also move quickly. They really did a great job landing the best player available with each pick, getting Ross Detwiler, Josh Smoker, Michael Burgess, Jordan Zimmermann and Jake Smolinski. And they were aggressive in the later rounds, forking over big bucks for Jack McGeary in the sixth round; nobody thought he’d be signable outside the first round, but the Nats got creative with his contract and found a way to get him done. That draft was the single greatest reason for the leap, adding some much-needed high-impact talent, but trades over the previous year and a half also added good depth. If anything, I think the Nationals are likely to rank higher next year, as some of their players in the low minors get closer to the big leagues and establish themselves as premium prospects, rather than simply promising prospects.I expect Zimmermann, in particular, to make that leap next year.
NFA: In your opinion, who is leading the efforts to rebuild the farm system? Jim Bowden? Mike Rizzo? Dana Brown? Bob Boone?
AF: It really is a true team effort. It starts at the top, where the Lerners, Stan Kasten and Bowden have made a legitimate commitment to building a solid foundation through player development, rather than sacrifice the long-term vision for some short-term gratification as the team moves into its new stadium. That commitment is not typical, and it’s absolutely vital. Give Bowden credit for parlaying veterans like Livan Hernandez, Mike Stanton and Marlon Anderson into solid prospects like Garrett Mock, Jhonny Nunez and Shairon Martis, and give him credit for letting people like Rizzo and Brown do their jobs. Brown deserves most of the credit for the exceptional 2007 draft, though Rizzo was heavily involved as well. All of those people work together very well.
NFA: What are the organization’s strengths? Where do they need to improve?
AF: Before they traded Glenn Gibson, I don’t think any organization had a better reservoir of quality lefthanded pitching than the Nationals. Even without Gibson, the Detwiler-Smoker-McGeary-John Lannan group is pretty special, and Cory Van Allen is intriguing as well. That is the strength of the organization, in my mind. There are plenty of promising righthanded power arms as well, like Collin Balester, Zimmermann, Colton Willems, Mock, Brad Peacock, Nunez, Hassan Pena, Adam Carr, Martin Beno and Zech Zinicola. That’s very good depth as well. There are a few potential high-impact bats in the system, like Chris Marrero (who I think is a very safe bet to be a .280-30-100 type player in the big leagues, and could very well be better than that), Burgess, Justin Maxwell and Smolinski, but most of the the other position-player prospects carry more risk. Guys like Stephen Englund, Stephen King, Ian Desmond and Derek Norris have plenty of talent, but they all have major flaws as well. I think the Nationals are very thin on good infield prospects.
NFA: The Nationals have openly discussed starting the season with Ross Detwiler in the major league bullpen, in a fashion similar to what teams did in the past, working a high profile SP into the rotation slowly. Where do you come down on this idea? Good or bad? [Note: In the time between conducting the interview and getting it posted, the Nationals assigned Detwiler to Potomac]
AF: Brandon Morrow of the Mariners seems to be a very good model for this, but I would rather see him work as a starter in the minors. He’s such a promising arm, it would be a shame to destroy his confidence in the big leagues (think Craig Hansen of the Red Sox) before he’s ready. He’s got some things to work on, so let him work on them in Double-A, and bring him up when he’s ready.
NFA: What reason do you believe led to the sliding of Burgess in the 2007 draft? After signing, Burgess showed the ability to hit at the levels he played. What are his strengths? What areas does Burgess need to work on?
AF: He had a very poor senior year of high school, kind of like Chris Marrero’s slide the year before that allowed the Nationals to get him in the middle of the first round. Burgess had too many people whispering in his ear, and he benefited by just listening to his professional instructors after he was drafted. He’s got so much power crammed into that compact frame, he’s got a chance to be a big-time home run hitter in the majors. He does need to work on getting his swing a little more under control, and he’s got to watch his weight — I’ve spoken to at least one organization official who thinks Burgess will end up at first base for sure. That would suppress his value considerably.
NFA: What are your feelings on the deal McGeary signed? Is it something you can see the Nationals (or other teams) doing in the future?
AF: I’ll certainly give the Nationals points for creativity. The time at Stanford could slow his development early in his pro career, but I think the trade-off will be worth it, because he’s got a chance to be an Andy Pettitte type in the majors down the road. He’s just so polished for a high school product, and guys with his makeup seem to succeed at a higher rate than other players.
NFA: Where are the strengths in the 2008 draft? If you were in charge of the Nationals and knowing you should always go with the best available player, what type of player would you select at #9, a high school or college player who grade on equally? Any names we should watch for?
AF: The college class is rich with corner infield bats (Justin Smoak, Pedro Alvarez, Yonder Alonso, Allan Dykstra, Conor Gillaspie, Brett Wallace, James Darnell) and quality (if flawed) arms (once you get past the top guys–Brian Matusz, Aaron Crow, Shooter Hunt– you’ve got Brett Hunter, Ryan Perry, Tanner Scheppers, Luke Burnett, Cody Satterwhite, Lance Lynn, Christian Friedrich, Tyson Ross, Jacob Thompson). The college outfielders and middle infielders are weak. Pitching seems to be the strength of the high school class, though I think the Nationals could be looking at a catcher at No. 9. There are two in the prep ranks who would seem a decent fit there–Kyle Skipworth and Adrian Nieto–and one in the college ranks who could be perfect–Florida State’s Buster Posey. Catching is one area where the Nationals are thin, and those are good options for that part of the draft. But the Nationals have proven adept at taking the best player available, whether college or prep, and I’m confident they’ll do the same thing this year.
NFA: Is there a break even point with going over slot in signing draft picks? In other words, should teams break the bank at every chance or should they target a handful of overslot guys and fill in the other areas with more signable players?
AF: Every team has a different approach to this, so there’s not any single right answer. Personally, I think investing in the draft is always a good idea, but some teams are reluctant to cross the commissioner’s office. I don’t think Washington will be one of those teams.
NFA: Marrero has thus far delivered on his potential but has moved from 3B to LF to 1B. What sort of offense will need need to provide to be an above average contributor as a 1B? How does he appear defensively?
AF: He’ll need to be a 30-homer guy, and I think he will be. That bat is legit — and it’s not just a power bat. His mature approach is what really sets him apart for his age. He’s making progress defensively and should be more than adequate at first.
NFA: What sort of future do you see for some of the other 2006 high schoolers? King? Englund? Willems?
AF: They’re all high-risk, high-reward types, and I like Willems the most of that group and think his fastball command is encouraging, though I worry about his command of his secondary pitches. Englund has a higher ceiling than King, but I think King is much more likely to reach his ceiling, which is an offensive second baseman.
NFA: How are the Nationals doing internationally? After the attention the Nationals focused on the signing of Smiley Gonzalez, they have not publicly highlighted their efforts internationally. Is there progress there? What should a fan of the Nationals look for to demonstrate improvement in the international area?
AF: They continue to sign quality players in the Dominican, if not the blue-chippers, but there is a lot of risk associated with giving a $2 million bonus to a 16-year-old, and I don’t think it’s a great investment. They’re making progress in Venezuela, having signed four decent prospects there last year, and are looking to make inroads in the Pacific Rim with an 18-day trip out there leading up to the Olympics in China.
NFA: After years of high expectations unrealized, it appears that Desmond has begun to deliver to some degree. Where do you see his ceiling now?
AF: I think he can be a fringe-average major league shortstop. I don’t see him being a star. But there’s nothing wrong with fringe-average.
NFA: Please provide me a breakout pitcher and hitter for the Nationals in 2008. Who do you think could be this year’s Lannan and quickly climb the organizational ladder?
AF: Breakout pitcher: Hassan Pena. Breakout hitter: Edgardo Baez (in a Frank Diaz 2006 kind of way). This year’s Lannan: Jeff Mandel.
NFA: With the Braves moving out of Richmond, what are the chances the Nationals can get a foothold there? A Triple-A franchise seems unlikely but is there an opportunity for the Nationals to get a Double-A or A-ball affiliate there?
AF: It seems a perfect fit given the proximity to Washington, obviously, and I think it’s extremely likely Richmond will try to land another minor league affiliate in the near future.
I want to thank Aaron for taking the time to answer my questions.